Pondering the next chapter in cloud growth

I am getting more and more questions about the pace of cloud transitions.

It started 18 months ago, when cloud growth began to slow.

Many have been scratching their heads, wondering whether it’s just the mechanical effect of the cloud now being a sizable part of the market, combined with a post-COVID correction, or a sign of deeper market change.

Lately, I’ve witnessed sovereignty concerns and rising scrutiny over cloud spend (evidenced by the rise of FinOps roles) creating headwinds.

Cloud is still the default platform for AI, but "overlay" solutions on top of existing stacks have been emerging.

Earlier this year, I also started hearing anecdotal signs that AI budgets might begin to cannibalize other modernization efforts, including cloud migrations.

In this context, Gartner has issued a prediction that caught my full attention:

By 2026, 40% of organizations will reduce the pace of their cloud adoption due to challenges managing increasing public cloud expenditure.

The earnings season should shed some light on how these conflicting trends are playing out.

What do you see?